Winter break? Why it might just make the Premier League more predictable.

It’s an issue that regularly comes up at this time of year. Normally brought up by a manager of one of the elite premiership clubs – this time last year it was Sir Alex Ferguson’s turn. He was supported by the manager of Sunderland at the time Steve Bruce, but it could be argued that not having the winter break is a benefit to the clubs not involved at the top of the table – in turn making for a more exciting, less predictable run of games over the Christmas and New Year period.

As a passionate Arsenal fan, I sat through the recent, 2-1 away loss to Fulham and saw how my team struggled to mount any form of consistent pressure in the second half – after doing just that in the first period. Although it might be seen as an excuse, my beloved Gunners were certainly lacking the fitness to drive on and attack in the second half, allowing Fulham to create the pressure which gave them a deserved victory.

Ji Dong-won's late winner stunned Man City

“We played 48 hours before and we went down to ten men and so there were probably some tired legs”, was the excuse from Wojciech Szczesny the next day.  
This year the dreaded winter fixture congestion has certainly taken its toll on the top clubs. Chelsea losing at home to Villa, Man Utd losing as home to Blackburn, Man City losing away at Sunderland, all unexpected results which probably would not have happened were it not for squad rotation and fatigue.
There is an obvious argument that the top clubs are better equipped to deal with a congested fixture list as they have more strength in depth than teams not as well off as them. But this hasn’t proven to be the case this year, and if these games were more spread out wouldn’t it just result in the top teams being able to put out full strength sides in almost every game, thus adding to the predictability of the league – the quality that makes it the most exciting league in the world.